India’s population is projected to peak in the early 2060s at approximately 1.7 billion before declining by 12 per cent, the United Nations (UN) has reported. Despite the decline, India is expected to remain the world’s most populous country throughout the century.
The World Population Prospects 2024 report, released on Thursday, indicates that the global population will continue to grow over the next 50-60 years, reaching around 10.3 billion by the mid-2080s. After this peak, the global population is projected to gradually decline, falling to 10.2 billion by the end of the century.
India, which surpassed China as the world’s most populous nation last year, will maintain this position through 2100. According to the report, India’s population is projected to be 1.45 billion in 2024, peaking at 1.69 billion in 2054. By 2100, the population is expected to decline to 1.5 billion, but India will still be the most populous country on Earth.
In a press conference, Clare Menozzi, Senior Population Affairs Officer at UN DESA, emphasized that “India is currently the largest country in the world in terms of population, and it is projected to stay so throughout the century.” She highlighted that India’s population is expected to peak in the 2060s and then decline slightly.
China’s population, currently at 1.41 billion, is projected to decrease to 1.21 billion by 2054 and further to 633 million by 2100. The report anticipates that China will experience the largest absolute population loss between 2024 and 2054, with a reduction of 204 million people.
John Wilmoth, Director of the Population Division at UN DESA, explained that China’s significant population decline is related to its current low fertility rate, which is around one birth per woman. This level is far below the 2.1 births needed to maintain the population size without migration.
Currently, nearly one-fifth of all countries, including China, Italy, South Korea, and Spain, experience “ultra-low” fertility, with fewer than 1.4 live births per woman. The global fertility rate now stands at 2.25 live births per woman, down from 3.31 in 1990. More than half of all countries have fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1 live births per woman.
Pakistan is projected to surpass the US as the third-largest country by 2054, with a population of 389 million. By 2100, Pakistan’s population is expected to be 511 million, while the US will have 384 million people.
Globally, life expectancy at birth reached 73.3 years in 2024, an increase of 8.4 years since 1995. It is projected to rise to around 77.4 years by 2054. By 2080, people aged 65 or older will outnumber children under 18. The number of people aged 80 or older is expected to exceed the number of infants by the mid-2030s.
Life expectancy has returned to pre-COVID-19 levels in nearly all countries. During the peak of the pandemic in 2020 and 2021, global life expectancy fell to 70.9 years, down from 72.6 in 2019.
The UN report highlights significant demographic changes expected over the next century, with India’s population trends playing a crucial role in global demographics.
