A new projection by polling firm Survation indicates that the Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer, is on track to win 484 of the 650 seats in the upcoming national election. This would surpass the party’s previous record of 418 seats under Tony Blair in 1997 and mark the highest number of seats won in Labour’s history.
The forecast predicts the Conservatives will secure just 64 seats, the lowest since the party’s inception in 1834. Additionally, the right-wing Reform UK party is expected to gain seven seats.
Survation’s analysis relies on the Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) method. This technique estimates local-level public opinion from extensive national samples and is described by pollsters as a model using polling data, rather than a poll itself.
Other MRP analyses have shown Labour’s lead to be significant, though with varying margins, but none have suggested a different overall outcome. In comparison, a regular poll by Redfield and Wilton Strategies also indicated a comfortable Labour lead, despite showing a slight narrowing in vote share nationwide.
