Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led alliance is projected to win a significant majority in the recently concluded general election, according to TV exit polls. The majority of these polls suggest that the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) could achieve a two-thirds majority in the 543-member lower house of parliament, surpassing the required 272 seats for a simple majority.
A compilation of five major exit polls estimates that the NDA could secure between 353 and 401 seats. This result is likely to have a positive impact on financial markets when they reopen on Monday. In the previous general election in 2019, the NDA won 353 seats, with the BJP alone securing 303.
Most exit polls indicate that the BJP could win more than the 303 seats it secured in 2019. The opposition “INDIA” alliance, led by Rahul Gandhi’s Congress party, is projected to win between 125 and 182 seats.
Exit polls in India have a mixed record, often missing the mark due to the country’s large and diverse population. Nevertheless, in his first comments after voting ended, Modi claimed victory without referencing the exit polls. “I can say with confidence that the people of India have voted in record numbers to re-elect the NDA government,” he said on X, without providing evidence. He criticised the opposition, stating, “The opportunistic INDI Alliance failed to strike a chord with the voters. They are casteist, communal, and corrupt.”
The opposition dismissed the exit polls, labelling them as “prefixed.” Most opposition parties accuse India’s main news channels of favouring Modi, a charge the channels deny. “This is a government exit poll, this is Narendra Modi’s exit poll,” Supriya Shrinate, the Congress’s social media head, told news agency ANI. “We have a sense of how many seats we are winning, it will not be one seat less than 259,” she said.
Pre-election surveys had suggested an easy majority for the BJP, though the “INDIA” alliance’s vigorous campaign introduced some uncertainty. Political analysts had predicted a narrower victory margin for the BJP compared to 2019. Nearly one billion people were eligible to vote in the seven-phase election that began on 19 April and was held in scorching summer heat in many areas. The Election Commission will count votes on 4 June, with results expected the same day.
A victory for Modi would make him only the second prime minister after Jawaharlal Nehru to win three consecutive terms. During his campaign, Modi highlighted his achievements over the past decade and criticised Congress for allegedly favouring India’s minority Muslims, a claim the opposition denies. The opposition campaigned on affirmative action and preserving the constitution, accusing Modi of dictatorial tendencies, which the BJP denies.
Unemployment and inflation are the main concerns for voters in India, according to surveys. Market analysts believe that the exit polls have reduced uncertainty about the election’s outcome, indicating the continuity of Modi’s economic policies. “Exit poll results which indicate a clear victory for the NDA with around 360 seats completely remove the so-called election jitters which have been weighing on markets in May,” said VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services. “This comes as a shot in the arm for the bulls who will trigger a big rally in the market on Monday,” he said.
