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COVID-19: UK hospital death toll rises to 12,107; Economy forecast to shrink by 35% in Q1

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The COVID-19 death toll in hospitals across the UK rose to 12,107 as of 1600 GMT on April 13, up by 778 on the day before, the health ministry said.

“302,599 people have been tested of which 93,873 tested positive,” the health ministry said.

Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab has said there would be no easing of lockdown measures when they come up for review this week. The Times newspaper said on Tuesday he would extend them until at least May 7.

The country’s independent budget forecasters said the economy could shrink by a massive 35% in the April-June period, more than doubling unemployment and taking public borrowing to its highest levels since World War Two.

Separately on Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund said the British economy looked set to shrink by 6.5% in 2020 as a whole, alongside similarly huge contractions for other economies, before growing by 4.0% in 2021.

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The Office for Budget Responsibility said the economy could bounce back quickly after the plunge in the second quarter.

But the implications of the crisis for its public finances were stark.

The budget deficit could hit £273 billion in the 2020/21 tax year, five times its previous estimate and equivalent to 14% of gross domestic product.

The projection was based on the assumption that the shutdown lasts for three months followed by another three-month period during which restrictions are partially lifted, the OBR said.

Public sector net debt could exceed 100% of gross domestic product during the 2020/21 financial year but end it at around 95% of GDP. Before the crisis, the OBR had forecast debt would be 77% of GDP in 2020/21.

The rise in the deficit and debt reflected the hit to the economy from the government’s unprecedented shutdown and the cost of its measures to ease the impact, such as a promise to pay 80% of the wages of workers who are temporarily laid off.

“But it should be borne in mind that the short- and medium-term outlook for the economy and the public finances would be very much worse without any fiscal and monetary response,” the OBR said.

The Bank of England last month cut interest rates twice, ramped up its bond-buying programme by a record 200 billion pounds and took other measures to help companies get credit.

The emergency measures should help to limit long-term economic “scarring” due to cancelled business investment, widespread business failures and long-term unemployment, the OBR said.

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