2019 Lok Sabha Election Exit Poll: BJP-led NDA; pollsters predict UPA loss again

The 2019 general elections, which wrapped up in seven phases on Sunday, witnessed the most acerbic campaign in recent times. The counting of votes will take place on May 23, marking—one way or another—a tectonic shift in Indian politics. Was this a wave election? Were there silent undercurrents that journalists, politicians and pollsters missed? Which way did the minorities lean? Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal set tongues wagging, when, at the end of Delhi polls, he claimed that Muslims voted in the last minute for the Congress, a statement which seemed a concession of sorts.
“Until 48 hours before polling, it seemed like all seven seats will come to AAP,” Kejriwal said, reported The Indian Express. “But at the last moment, the complete Muslim vote got shifted to Congress. We are trying to figure out what happened.” Was that a nationwide phenomenon? Do the scared minorities see Congress as the only national bulwark against the BJP’s muscular Hindutva?
As the seventh and final phase of the Lok Sabha elections concluded on Sunday, exit polls projected a clear majority for the NDA government. The BJP and allies hold 341 seats in the Lok Sabha since they emerged victorious in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. However, as per most exit polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA government is set to make a comeback with a lesser margin compared to the previous election.
According to NDTV Poll of Polls, NDA is expected to win in 292 of 543 seats, while congress and its allies will bag 127 seats.
Times Now-VMR, News18-IPSOS, India Today-Axis and Jan Ki Baat, BJP-led NDA may see a better victory than the previous polls, with predictions stating that the front will win over 300 seats. However, ABP-AC Nielsen states that BJP-led NDA may not near the majority mark, winning only 267 seats. C-Voter and NewsNation have predicted a similar scenario for the ruling government.
Among the states where the BJP-led front is expected to win with high margins is Rajasthan. According to News18-IPSOS, BJP is likely to win 22-23 seats in the state. The same survey also finds that the saffron party will get 54 of 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh. In Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, however, the UPA may find some support.
The exit polls do not hold promise for Congress and other Opposition parties, with News18-IPSOS and India Today-Axis predicting as less as 80 seats for the UPA front. The Lok Sabha polls were held over seven phases – on 11, 18, 23 and 29 April and 6, 12 and 19 May. The counting of votes will be conducted on 23 May.
In a build-up to the 2019 general elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Congress chief Rahul Gandhi have traded various allegations. Modi centered his poll pitch around the nationalism debate and the impact of the schemes launched by the NDA government led by him and the BJP. Rahul, on the other hand, has attacked Modi on the jobs and economy crisis, and corruption, among other issues.
Various other Opposition alliances were formed, including the SP-BSP-RLD gathbandhan in Uttar Pradesh, to dismantle the NDA government at the centre. Over 8,000 candidates were in the fray for the 542 Lok Sabha seats across the country in the Lok Sabha elections.

( with agency input)