Most Asian markets rose Monday (4) as investors steel themselves for a too-close-to-call US presidential election, while Chinese leaders meet to hammer out a stimulus package that experts say could be determined by the vote.
The gains came after a positive lead from Wall Street and data showing far fewer US jobs were created last month than expected, boosting hopes for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut when it gathers this week.
With Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and her Republican rival Donald Trump neck and neck ahead of Tuesday’s (5) poll, traders are keeping a close eye on any hint of an advantage either way.
The dollar slipped Monday (4) as a fresh opinion poll in Iowa — which Trump won in 2016 and 2020 — showed Harris leading.
A victory for Trump is seen as being positive for the dollar and pushing up Treasury yields owing to his pledges to cut taxes and impose hefty tariffs on imports.
It’s the people that Make America Great 🇺🇸 Unity 2024 pic.twitter.com/26YxgpBbFA
— Nicole Shanahan (@NicoleShanahan) November 3, 2024
Elections for the Senate and House of Representatives are also being closely watched amid speculation the Republicans could take control of both.
“It’s not just about who wins the presidency but also the composition of the House and Senate,” said Peter Esho, founder of Esho Capital.
“If the Republicans sweep all three, that will open the door to significant fiscal changes, which is negative for bondholders and could spell higher yields until the dust settles.”
The election comes days before the Fed is due to make its latest policy decision, with investors expecting 25-basis-point reduction after a bumper 50-point cut at its last gathering.
The vote is of particular interest to China, where Beijing is this week meeting to hammer out an economic stimulus.
The concrete measures are expected to be announced Friday (8), allowing time for officials to digest the result and make allowances for either.
“We believe the US election results will have some impact on the size of Beijing’s stimulus package,” said Ting Lu, Nomura’s Chief China Economist, in a research note. Both candidates in the race have pledged to get tougher on Beijing, with Trump promising tariffs of 60 percent on all Chinese goods coming into the country.
“We are expecting more details on the proposals to be passed,” said Heron Lim of Moody’s Analytics, including “how this extra funding would be allocated to address the near-term economic issues”.
Nomura economists expect lawmakers this week to approve around a trillion yuan ($140 billion) in extra budget — mostly for indebted local governments.
Observers also expect Beijing to approve a one-off one trillion yuan for banks, aimed at writing off non-performing loans over the past four years.
Markets rose across Asia, with Shanghai up more than one percent, while Hong Kong, Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Taipei, Wellington and Bangkok were also well up. Manila, Mumbai and Jakarta dropped.
Oil prices rose around two percent after eight members of the OPEC+ group of producers said Sunday they would extend supply cuts until the end of next month. They had been delaying output hikes on worries about slowing demand in China and the United States.
The commodity was also being supported by geopolitical tensions after Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned at the weekend that Israel and the United States “will definitely receive a tooth-breaking response” to Israeli attacks on October 26.
That strike was in response to an October 1 barrage of about 200 missiles against its rival. (AFP)
