Indian Americans have traditionally supported the Democratic Party in U.S. elections. However, a new survey suggests that this support may wane in the 2024 election, with an increase in the number of voters open to voting for Republican candidates.
Conducted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) in collaboration with YouGov, the Indian American Attitudes Survey (IAAS) polled 714 Indian American voters between September 18 and October 15, 2024.
The survey provides insights into voting preferences, party identification, and key issues influencing the community’s vote this election cycle.
According to the survey, 61 percent of Indian American voters intend to support the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, while 32 per cent lean towards Republican Donald Trump. This represents a significant shift from the 2020 election when Democrats enjoyed broader support.
Currently, 47 per cent of respondents identify as Democrats, down from 56 per cent in 2020, while the share of those identifying as Republicans has remained stable at 21 per cent. The percentage of Indian Americans identifying as Independents, however, has risen to 26 per cent, reflecting a growing diversity in political leanings within the community.
Key Findings of the Survey
Preference for Democrats Declining, Republicans Gaining Ground
Although Indian Americans still favor the Democratic Party, the survey indicates a steady rise in Republican support. This change is most evident among younger male voters, who are more likely to back Trump than their female counterparts.
This shift points to a nuanced political landscape within the community. Among Indian American women, 67 per cent favor Harris, compared to only 53 per cent of men. Additionally, 22 per cent of women intend to vote for Trump, while a more substantial 39 per cent of men have expressed the same intent. This trend underscores a notable gender divide in political leanings, especially among younger voters.
The survey results reveal that this gap is most pronounced among voters under 40. Among Indian American women in this age group, 60 per cent intend to vote for Harris, while support among men in the same group is split almost evenly between Trump and Harris.
However, among voters over 40, 70 per cent of women and 60 per cent of men plan to vote for Harris. This age-based disparity in political preference highlights a growing complexity in how Indian Americans engage with political parties and candidates.
Lukewarm Reception Towards Indian American Republicans
Despite the rise in support for Trump, Indian American Republican figures such as Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Usha Vance (wife of Republican vice-presidential nominee JD Vance) do not enjoy widespread favor among the community.
VIVEK RAMASWAMY: “Welcome to 2024. New York is a swing state.”
— America (@america) October 27, 2024
According to the survey, Indian Americans express mixed or negative views toward prominent Indian American Republicans. Furthermore, Democrats tend to view these Republican figures less favorably than Republican respondents view Democratic leaders, indicating a polarized view of leadership within the community.
Abortion and Reproductive Rights a Central Issue
The survey underscores that abortion and reproductive rights are critical issues for Indian American voters in the 2024 election, ranking just behind inflation and economic concerns. Among Democrats and women especially, abortion has become a key issue influencing voting intentions.
This highlights a significant ideological divide between Indian American Democrats and Republicans, as the latter’s policy positions on abortion are seen as misaligned with many within the community.
Future Second Lady Usha Vance: “Neither J.D. nor I expected to find ourselves in this position — but it’s hard to imagine a more powerful example of the American Dream.”
FULL REMARKS: pic.twitter.com/JJgdJbem0H
— Team Trump (Text TRUMP to 88022) (@TeamTrump) July 18, 2024
When asked why they do not identify as Republicans, many Indian Americans pointed to the Republican Party’s perceived intolerance toward minorities, restrictive stance on abortion, and close ties with Christian evangelical groups. These differences reflect the community’s emphasis on socially liberal policies and inclusive values, particularly among Democrats.
The Growing Political Importance of Indian Americans
With a population of 5.2 million, Indian Americans have become the second-largest immigrant group in the United States. Among these, approximately 2.6 million are eligible voters, making Indian Americans a key voting bloc in the 2024 election.
The presence of Kamala Harris, a Democratic candidate of Indian heritage, has amplified the significance of the Indian American vote. While Indian Americans have generally supported Democrats, the survey highlights the increasing openness to Republican candidates, which may reshape traditional voting patterns within the community.
This shift could hold significant implications for both parties. For Democrats, maintaining the support of Indian American voters may require reinforcing a commitment to issues like minority rights, economic opportunity, and reproductive rights.
For Republicans, continued outreach and addressing policy concerns that resonate with the Indian American community, such as inclusivity and economic growth, could strengthen their appeal within this influential group.
The survey by CEIP and YouGov reveals a nuanced view of the political landscape within the Indian American community. Although Democrats continue to enjoy majority support, a noticeable shift towards the Republican Party, particularly among younger Indian American men, suggests an evolving political alignment.
With key issues such as abortion, economic concerns, and social inclusivity shaping voter preferences, both parties have opportunities to strengthen their standing with this critical voter base. The 2024 election could serve as a turning point, potentially diversifying the traditionally Democratic Indian American vote.
